Transylvania's population, expected to climb, actually dropped slightly, Census says
The decline is tiny, but the lack of growth surprises economic development officials. Information available next month will help peg possible causes, including more retirees and short-term rentals.
By Dan DeWitt
BREVARD — The population of Transylvania County — thought to be growing slowly if steadily — has actually declined slightly since 2010, according to early results of the 2020 Census.
The drop is tiny enough, 104 residents, that the county’s population growth is considered statistically flat. But even that news was a surprise given that the Bureau’s most recent estimate, from 2019, showed a population gain of about 1,300 residents and a nine-year growth rate of 3.9 percent.
“I would assume that Transylvania County picked up that 104 (residents) in the past year,” said Nathan Ramsey, director of the Mountain Area Workforce Development Board for the Land of Sky Regional Council. “The issue is — I was expecting to see some moderate growth, and that’s what the projections were showing.”
He said there was reason to be skeptical of the accuracy of the count, which showed a total 2020 county population of 32,986.
“We know that rural communities are probably under-reporting Census numbers because there’s some resistance to people responding,” he said, noting that such trends have also long been identified among minority communities.
Transylvania ranked 77th among the state’s 100 counties in the percentage of residents who “self-reported” household information, according to the Bureau, though the same trend, and virtually the same percentage of voluntary participation, was documented in 2010.
Also, Ramsey said, the Bureau takes actions, including the application of statistical models, in an attempt to correct for under-reporting, and the Census “is the hardest number we’re going to get.”
“But the county does have the right to contest that number,” he said.
The statistics were released last week to guide congressional redistricting and include only raw population figures. Additional data such as average household size and median age and income will not be available until next month.
These figures will help demographers identify potential causes of the stagnant growth in Transylvania, including the expected rise in the number of housing units devoted to short-term rentals and second homes, as well as a trend of retirees in small households displacing larger families.
Generally, last week’s numbers showed the expected pattern of growth in urban and suburban localities across the region, and stagnation or decline in rural areas.
Buncombe County’s population, for example, jumped 13 percent to 269,452, while Henderson County’s climbed by nine percent, to 116,210. Fifty counties in the state, on other other hand, showed population declines, and in some remote localities in North Carolina's 11th congressional district, including Rutherford and Cherokee counties, the number of residents dropped dramatically.
The stagnant growth in Transylvania is also a surprise because it otherwise seems “more popular than ever,” Ramsey said. “Transylvania County is, by all indications, a vibrant, dynamic community.”
One example of this is significant building activity, with more than 100 new-home permits issued every year between 2016 and 2020. And at the very least, the Census has failed to account for a surge in population and economic activity evident since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, said Mac Morrow, the mayor pro tem of the city of Brevard, where the Census documented slower-than-expected growth.
While Morrow said he has seen recent estimates that the city’s population is more than 8,000, the Census Bureau pegged it at 7,704, an increase of just 135 since 2010.
That stands in contrast with the 32 new utility hookups the city reported in the fiscal year that ended June 30.
“If you look at sales taxes, they are off the charts, setting new records, and room taxes are setting new records,” he said.
Still, observers pointed to several factors, many of them perennial ones, that limit the county’s growth.
That includes the limited availability of land, the lack of access to major highways, the high costs of housing and the influx of retirees.
The contrast between the number of housing starts and the stagnant population “may be due to a move towards short-term rentals or second-home owners who don't have their primary residences here,” said Josh Hallingse, executive director of the Transylvania Economic Alliance.
Also, Ramsey said, rural counties near urban areas sometimes see growth because they can offer lower prices for homes and apartments. But “the reality is that Transylvania County home prices are just as high or higher than in Buncombe and Henderson counties,” he said.
And Hallingse said that when he looks at the new Census numbers, he thinks they are determined less by existing urban development and more by transportation infrastructure.
“We talk about the urban and rural divide, but in my mind it’s really about interstate access,” he said.
This particularly helps drive the development of condominiums and apartments, which are common near major highways but notably scarce in Transylvania.
Also, he said, though population growth is usually seen as a crucial asset to economic development, it has never been Transylvania’s main selling point.
“Because of how we market ourselves, we’re not generally going after huge, major corporations,” he said. “It’s more privately owned, small to medium-size companies with owners who are making decisions based on more than population growth. They are making decisions based on lifestyle and being able to do things they really like.”
Editor’s note: Sorry for reposting this story to those of you have previously received it. I intended, as always, to send it to all subscribers, and accidentally sent it only to those who have paid.